Thursday, August 10, 2006

To say that the blogosphere is abuzz with analysis and opinion regarding the Connecticut primary would be an understatement.

I would avoid the subject entirely except for one thing: This situation is clear and undeniable proof that my prophecy is moving along quite nicely. Let's look at the situation.

First of all, Connecticut is a state with very little in the way of Republicans. Face it, Schlesinger is finished. This will be a battle between two Donks, one official, and one challenging as an independent.

Lieberman, however, by virtue of his strong stand on Iraq, will easily earn the support of the majority of Republicans in Connecticut, and will even more easily maintain the support of those who voted for him in the primary. The margin was not the "landslide" I saw on one of my searches, but 52%-48%. That means that Lieberman maintains nearly half of the Democratic vote alone.

John Hawkins did a little research intothe demographics of Connecticut voters. Here's the breakdown he found:

Breakdown Of CT. voters according to the 2006 Almanac of American Politics:

43% Independent
34.2% Democratic
22.9% Republicans
Mathematically, this "victory" only guarantees Lamont about 17% of the popular vote, while a good number of Republican voters will clearly go to the hawk, Lieberman, for whom they've been voting all along anyway. If Lieberman gets at least half of the Republican vote, and half of the Independent vote, 17+11+21=49%. For Lamont to win, he would have to somehow get a significant Republican turnout in his favor, which is NOT going to happen. Lieberman is about as liberal as even a Connecticut Republican can take.

In trying to beat Lieberman in Connecticut, the Donks will futilely spend and spend and spend ... and then ask for tax increases so they can spend more. They will lose there anyway.

This will weaken the Domocrats significantly, and more races like this will take place throughout the country in future years. They have been irrelevant for some time now politically, and by trying to beat one of their own over a single (and very important) issue, they are simply speeding up their spiral into oblivion.

Click the link above with regard to my prophecy with regard to what happens next.

Any comments here, please.